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As has been widely documented, sports event contracts are currently the lifeblood of the prediction market industry, but Bernstein notes that won’t be the case on a permanent basis. In fact, the research firm estimates that sports derivatives’ share of industry volume will decline to 35% in 2035, indicating that the aforementioned volume increase will be led by other categories.

The research firm estimates that by 2035, financial derivatives, including event contracts linked to commodities, cryptocurrencies and stocks, will account for 49% of turnover on yes/no exchanges, topping sports to become the largest volume driver. The research firm sees event contracts tied to key performance indicators (KPIs) leading the charge.

“We expect new products such as KPI markets, which allow users to trade a single corporate metric, such as production, deliveries, or subscriber growth, rather than the stock price itself,” observe the analysts. “Further, perp futures are expanding from crypto to commodities and single stock perps.”

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The report rejected argumentswarning that advertising restrictions would drive consumers to illicit gambling sites. They citied weak evidence for mass migration to illegal operators following advertising limits. 

“Interviews [ … ] with representatives of state monopoly operators across European jurisdictions consistently suggested that advertising restrictions did not lead to consumer migration towards illegal operators,” the report said. 

This report arrived amid the UK government’s 2023 white paper on gambling reform, which introduced a statutory levy for funding research and treatment. 

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