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About Forgotten
The biggest new uncertainty in US sports betting is prediction markets. The American Gaming Association estimates that Americans will legally wager $29.5 billion in betting handle through US regulated commercial sportsbooks during the 2026 NFL season, broadly unchanged from the $29.4 billion handle recorded in 2025. These figures refer to the amount wagered, not sportsbook revenue.
Robinson calls prediction markets “the main event”. His argument is not simply that US customers are moving from sportsbooks to prediction markets. The more important point is that sportsbooks no longer have the relatively protected market that was once assumed.
Kalshi, Robinhood, Crypto.com and DraftKings’ own prediction-market operation are all competing for activity around sporting events. Beynon says prediction markets are having a larger effect on valuations than on fundamentals so far.
What is Forgotten?
Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is expected to send a provisional measure to Congress this week to tighten the regulations for betting in Brazil.
According to CNN Brazil, the government is considering expanding restrictions on betting advertising and banning online casino games. The idea would be to maintain only sports betting.
The decision to use a provisional measure means the restrictions can take effect immediately, less than a month before the elections. This is the clearest indication yet that the sector is being used for electoral purposes to try and secure Lula’s re-election.
How to play Forgotten
Peru’s regulated market went live in February 2024 and has since attracted a host of international operators, establishing a competitive market that includes legacy domestic operators such as market leader Apuesta Total.
According to Jennyfer Escobar, Stake’s Peru country manager, Peru is one of the most competitive in Latin America. “In the early stages, competition was largely driven by marketing investment, including advertising, sponsorships etc,” Escobar tells iGB. “Today, product quality, platform performance and the overall user experience are becoming much stronger differentiators.
“Players are more informed, have higher expectations and will switch brands if those expectations aren’t met.”
